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A recent market study by the Nova Institute forecasts annual growth of 17% for bio-based polymers between 2023 and 2028. Demand from Asia and the USA in particular is driving growth, while Europe is lagging behind.
Bio-based polymers on the upswing: Current market study forecasts strong growth until 2028. Source: Adobe.Stock
2023 was a promising year for bio-based polymers: While PLA capacities increased by almost 50%, polyamide capacities and epoxy resin production also recorded steady growth. Capacities for 100% bio-based PE were also expanded. PE and PP, which are produced from bio-based naphtha, continued to establish themselves with growing volumes. Current and future expansions for PHAs are still being planned.
In 2023, the production volume of all bio-based polymers will amount to around 4.4 million tonnes, which corresponds to 1% of the production volume of fossil-based polymers. At 17%, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for bio-based polymers is significantly higher than the overall growth of the polymer market (2 to 3%) – this trend is expected to continue until 2028.
Some global brands are already expanding their raw material portfolio to include renewable carbon, CO2, recycling and especially biomass in addition to fossil carbon, leading to an increase in demand for bio-based and biodegradable polymers. At the same time, the necessary political support is lacking, especially in Europe, where only biofuels and bioenergy are still subsidised. The situation is different in Asia and the USA, where supportive legislation is fuelling demand.
Global production capacities for bio-based polymers by region
Asia has the world’s largest installed production capacities for bio-based polymers in 2023, accounting for 55%, making it the leading continent. It has the largest capacities for PLA and PA, among others. North America accounts for a 19% share with large installed capacities for PLA and PTT, while South America’s share is 13% and is mainly based on PE. The European share of global capacity for bio-based polymers has decreased to only 13% compared to 2022. This is mainly due to the updated data for PE and PP produced in Europe, where only 10% of the total volume is bio-based. 90% is “bio-based” on the basis of “mass balance and free allocation (MBFA)”. The European share is determined in particular by the installed capacities for SCPC and PA. Less than 1% of Australia/Oceania’s share is based on SCPC. With an expected CAGR of 35% between 2023 and 2028, Asia has by far the highest growth in bio-based polymer capacities compared to other regions of the world. This increase is primarily due to the expansion of production capacities for PA, PHA and PLA.
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