PP: Medium-term multi-head configuration

2019年10月09日15:22 来源：无

Futures market: LLDPE closed 7425 in 2001 with a position of 621,000 hands; PP2001 closed 8161 with a position of 619,000 hands.

Spot market: LLDPE East China 7650 (- 50), China CFR imports 901 US dollars;

PP Yuyao granule 8850, Linyi powder 8275; Drawing and copolymerization price difference - 250.

Base difference: LLDPE base difference 190; 1-5 price difference 125; PP Shandong base difference 480, Zhejiang base difference 705, 1-5 price difference 374.

Profit: LL: Ethylene Profit 354, Methanol Profit 1084, Import Profit 219;

PP: Propylene converted PP profit 375, methanol method disk - 374, propane dehydrogenation converted PP profit 2657, drawing import profit 162, PP copolymer import profit 284;

Inventory: PE: China Petrochemical (North China, East China, South China) 39.3 million tons (-0.72); PE: East China Social Inventory 125.1 million tons (-0.35); PP: Social Treasury 94.4 million tons (-0.12), upstream 1.91 (-0.13);

Two oil stocks: 88.5 (+28) million tons

Start-up rate: LL - 82% in the lower reaches of East China;

PP: downstream plastics 54%, copolymer injection 63%, BOPP 53.9%;

Summary: PE spot valuation has been repaired, import has turned to deficit, base spread has expanded, overall valuation is neutral, marginal driving downward; PP spot valuation is high, futures valuation is low, import small profit, overall neutrality is high, marginal driving upward. From the perspective of term structure, plastic rebound is difficult to sustain, focusing on the impact of crude oil trends. With the decline of crude oil prices, polyolefins return to the dominant fundamentals, PE is obviously weaker than PP; in the medium term, PP is more bullish, PE is more bearish.

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