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In terms of spot LLDPE price, the low-end price of LLDPE in North China was 7300 yuan/ton on the previous trading day, the low-end price of LLDPE in East China was 7400 yuan/ton, the lowest price of LLDPE in the external market was 860 dollars/ton, and the price of LLDPE was 7470 yuan/ton after tax payment. Spot PP prices, the previous trading day North China low end price of 8550 yuan / ton, East China low end price of 8750 yuan / ton.
In terms of inventory, Petrochemical PE+PP had an early inventory of 605,000 tons on the previous trading day. It is estimated that the accumulation of about 200,000-250,000 tons of long-term pseudo-petrochemical will reach 800,000-850,000 tons after seven days of vacation.
LLDPE's point of view: The start-up load of agricultural film, film and some plastic processing products factories in North China due to the policy of environmental restriction or shutdown is expected to increase in the early period after the festival. Especially in October, the demand for film is gradually booming, and the demand for film is expected to be strongly driven by the "Double Eleventh Shopping Festival". Although the petrochemical stocks after the festival are at a high level, due to the demand of petrochemical agents for goods assessment at the beginning of the month, the production is expected to increase. There is a low inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain. We are optimistic about the elimination of petrochemical stocks after the holiday. L will rebound in the short term or in the short term. It will still be under pressure during the mid term or outside the operation of the Ma oil plant and the commissioning test of the internal power system in October. On the operation, the low, short and multi L 01 contracts can continue to be held, and the profits will be left on the spot. On the arbitrage, the L1-5 can still be held. Target position temporarily see + 300.
PP point of view: after the holidays, the initial load of plastic woven, BOPP film and some plastic processing products affected by the policy of environmental protection limited production or stopping production in North China is expected to increase. On the whole, the demand for fine products in the downstream of October is good, the demand for cars is on the edge, and the washing machine's reverse trend of real estate is still growing positively. We do not rule out the opportunity that PP will continue to rise after the price period. But we It is considered that the magnitude will not be too large, mainly due to the poor economic data in Europe and America released during the holidays, which aggravate the pressure of global economic recession. In addition, a new line of production capacity of 300 thousand tons PDH unit in the 600 thousand tonnes of capacity is officially open to the whole process and ready for mass production. The two phase 400 thousand tons PP plant will have trial run at the end of October, while the 900 thousand Ma PP oil plant on the outside can be driven smoothly. Recently, it has maintained 50% load operation. In the medium term, the downward pressure of macro-economy and the introduction of new PP capacity will force the PP price to bear pressure. In terms of operation strategy, we should pay attention to the rebound and emptying opportunities brought by the smooth depot of petrochemical after the short-term festival. We can continue to hold long-L short PP01 positions in arbitrage.
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E-mail：luning@ibuychem.com
