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[Perspective] Geopolitical news in the Middle East is flying all over the world and there is a farce in the crude oil market.

2019年09月29日14:22 来源:无

On September 27, the evening oil market again staged a good turn-around. First, after Iran's Ruhani returned to Tehran from the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he said that the United States had proposed lifting all sanctions against Iran in exchange for dialogue. Oil prices fell 3% on the news. Later, however, Trump wrote on Twitter that Iran wanted him to lift all sanctions. "I answered: Of course not!" Oil prices recovered all of their declines, and then showed a trend of sawing in the next day. So far, oil prices have closed oscillating star lines for three consecutive trading days. Sources say Saudi Arabia has agreed to a partial ceasefire in Yemen. New York Mercantile Futures Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $55.91 a barrel in November 2019, down $0.50, or 0.9%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $54.75-56.76; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent Crude Oil futures settled at $61.91 a barrel in November 2019, down from the previous trading day. It fell $0.83, or 1.3%, to $60.76-62.75.

Analysts at the Reuters Global Oil Forum said the Wall Street Journal quoted unnamed sources as saying Saudi Arabia had agreed to a partial ceasefire in Yemen, which also put pressure on oil prices. Reuters also said Iranian President Ruhani said the United States agreed to remove all sanctions against Iran in exchange for talks. Affected by this, international oil prices fell sharply in early trading. However, President Trump subsequently said that he had rejected Iran's request.

The German commercial bank said the news that Saudi crude oil production had recovered faster than expected and that the United States had not threatened Iran more might mean that the risk premium of oil prices had little reason to continue to rise. Meanwhile, news of rising U.S. crude oil inventories may have depressed oil prices.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) may cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020 if the global economy weakens further, IEA Director Bill said on Friday. In August, the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for the growth of global oil demand to 1.1 million barrels per day in 2019 and 1.3 million barrels in 2020, respectively, as trade sluggishness weighed on global oil consumption, slowing demand growth to the slowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. "It will depend on the performance of the global economy," Birol told Reuters on the sidelines of the Global Knowledge Forum in Seoul. If the global economy weakens, we may lower oil demand expectations, and there are already some signs of global economic weakening.

But, Birol added, "Let's not forget that low oil prices also put upward pressure on demand."

Since this week, as Saudi Arabia's crude oil production resumed, U.S. crude oil inventories grew and the market focused on weak economic data, international oil prices have fallen back in the midst of the oscillation, just slightly higher than before the attack on Saudi Arabia's oil facilities. In the past week, the first-month futures of light and low-sulfur crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by $2.18, or 3.75%, the biggest drop since mid-July; the average settlement price of $56.95 per barrel was $2.366 lower than the previous week, with the highest settlement price of $58.64 per barrel and the lowest settlement price of $55.91 per barrel; trading range of $54.75-59.39. Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange fell $2.37, or 3.69%, the biggest one-week decline since the beginning of August; the average settlement price of $62.98 per barrel was $2.19 lower than the previous week, with the highest settlement price of $64.77 per barrel and the lowest settlement price of $61.91 per barrel; trading range of $60.76-65.50.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, a consulting firm, said in a report, "For most of this month, news about Saudi Arabia has been at the centre of the oil price oscillation, whether daily or weekly."

The number of active oil drillings in the United States has declined for six consecutive weeks to its lowest level since May 2017. According to data released by General Electric's Baker Hughes Oilfield Service, 713 U.S. online drilling wells were drilled in the week ending September 27, 6 fewer than the previous week and 150 fewer than the same period last year. The report shows that the Canaan Woodford Basin (CANA WOODFORD) has increased by two; Colorado's DJ-Niobrara Basin by one; Texas's Eagle Ford Basin by one; western Oklahoma's Granite Wash Basin by one; and Permian Basin by one. This week, there were 24 offshore platforms in the United States, one less than the previous week, and four more than the same period last year. Baker Hughes data also showed that 146 natural gas drillings were drilled in the United States during the same period, two less than the previous week, and 43 less than the same period last year. Among them, there are 835 terrestrial oil and gas platforms in the United States, 7 less than the previous week and 194 less than the same period last year. The total number of oil and gas drilling platforms in the United States is 860, 8 less than the previous week and 194 less than the same period last year.

According to the latest data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States, fund managers, including hedge funds, had a net long position in WTI crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the London Intercontinental Exchange in the week ending September 24, down 3.71% from 220758 in the previous week to 21561. Among them, the net long holdings of WTI crude oil futures and options on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased from 213410 in the previous week to 198109; the net long holdings of WTI on the Intercontinental Exchange increased from 7348 in the previous week to 14452.

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