I. crude oil

U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production recovered faster than expected, and U.S. benchmark crude oil futures continued to plunge in early Thursday. However, in response to the attack on Saudi oil facilities earlier this month, the Pentagon announced on Thursday that the United States would send more Patriot Missile Company, radar and about 200 support personnel to Saudi Arabia. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, WTI has narrowed its decline, and Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark, have risen. On Thursday (September 26), West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $56.41 a barrel in November 2019 on the New York Commodity Futures Exchange, down $0.08, or 0.1%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.41 to $56.84; Brent Crude Oil futures settled at $62.74 a barrel in November 2019 on the London Intercontinental Exchange, down from the previous trading day. It rose $0.35, or 0.6%, to $61.45-62.92.

II. Inventory

According to the data monitored by the IBUYCHEM, Petrochemical polyolefin stocks were 555,000 tons on September 27, down 2.63% from yesterday's stocks.

III. Institutional Market View

(1) Huatai Futures

PE and PP: insufficient replenishment before the North China Festival and weak overall disk

PE: Today, the market is weak and the petrochemical industry is stable. After the previous continuous increase, the downstream follow-up gradually weakens, and the downstream is more exclusive to high-priced goods. On the supply side, part of the overhaul resumed production in the third quarter, and construction began to pick up gradually; on the external side, the supply of low-priced goods quoted by the US dollar was reduced, and the stockpile was reluctant to sell, so the recent sharp pullback, polyolefin import profit pullback. On the demand side, the demand for agricultural film began to rebound gradually. At present, the price support on the demand side gradually appeared, and the marginal expectation of improvement was expected. Generally speaking, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches has improved markedly. At present, the pressure is in the normal range. Demand in the lower reaches is recovering steadily. The import window is open. However, the impact is not great because of the low price of the outer plate and the scarcity of supply. However, the early overhaul gradually resumes production, and the purchasing power of North China is insufficient due to environmental protection and production restriction. Overall, short-term thinking. Arbitrage, L-P, considering seasonality and new capacity, has room for recovery in the later period, but short-term shocks are still dominant.

Strategy: One-sided: neutral, short at high prices; Arbitrage: LP short, stable, medium rise

Main risk points: large fluctuation of crude oil; Sino-US trade frictions, replenishment efforts, non-standard price changes

PP: Today, the market has been shaken and Petrochemical has been stable. However, after the recent continuous increase, the downstream follow-up has gradually weakened, and the downstream is more exclusive to high-priced goods. On the demand side, the seasonal demand side of PP is weaker than that of PE. With the coming four quarters, the production, sales and inventory of automobile white power are expected to improve. On the cost side and substitution side, crude oil and propylene are stable and neutral. Generally speaking, recently, PP plant has been restarted more, production proportion has been restored substantially, and the second-stage MTO plant with additional capacity was commissioned on September 12. It is progressing smoothly. At present, polypropylene plant is running normally, L5E89 is produced, the transaction of disk height is weakened, the base repairing is slowed down, and the purchasing power of North China due to environmental protection restrictions is insufficient. Continue the idea of meeting the heights and closing the gap. Arbitrage, L-P, considering seasonality and new capacity, has room for recovery in the later period, but short-term shocks are still dominant.

Strategies: Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: LP Short and Steady Rising

Main risk points: large fluctuation of crude oil; Sino-US trade frictions, replenishment efforts, non-standard price changes

(2) Hualian Futures

[PVC]: Thursday night's decline rebounded slightly. Fundamentally, after September, the supply side will reduce the number of overhaul devices, focusing on the new production capacity in the fourth quarter; the demand side is still affected by environmental protection, mainly just in need, and trading is not good after the decline. Inventory in China continued to maintain a slight decline in the warehouse, cost-side calcium carbide prices stopped falling slightly rebound, but still lower than last year, the general support for the disk. Recently, the disk continued to decline, forming a trend of medium-term callback, focusing on the early support of the 6300-6400 interval, the operation of the air sheet continued to hold.

(3) Everbright Futures

Polyolefins

On Thursday, the polyolefin disk shook weakly. Spot, East China PP drawing 8875 yuan / ton, the same as the previous trading day; East China Linear 7700 yuan / ton, the same as the previous trading day. At present, the inventory level of each link of polyolefin is not high, the effect of two oil control stocks is remarkable, and the adjustment range of spot and face price at the end of the month is limited. But recently, the depletion degree of daily inventory margin of petrochemical stocks began to weaken, and with the return of overhaul units at the end of September and the beginning of October, coupled with the load increase of new and old units such as Juzhengyuan and Datang Duolun, the pressure of polyolefin supply began to increase gradually in October. Overlapping the National Day period, the policy of environmental protection and production restriction in North China has become stricter, which has a greater impact on the downstream demand enterprises of polyolefin. The contradiction between supply and demand will be gradually enlarged in the future. In the medium term, the idea of polyolefin still remains empty. The risk is that the supply pressure caused by unstable operation of the new plant can not be realized. It is also suggested that attention be paid to the recovery of Saudi oil field facilities and the progress of trade negotiations in October.

(4) CITIC Anxin Futures

[plastics]

The focus of market trading has shifted downward. Linear Petrochemical quotation is lower, the market is even more unsupported, due to heavy pollution weather orange warning, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and other surrounding agricultural film manufacturers to implement local government requirements, production restrictions, production stoppage, coupled with logistics and transportation management constraints, before National Day, the demand for raw materials for agricultural film manufacturers will lag behind, North China as a whole mining. Purchase volume will be reduced; polypropylene market supply is not loose, relatively strong support.