In the early morning of September 18, Beijing time, it was another super night.

On Thursday, the world waited for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate resolution. At 2:00 a.m. on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution, announcing a 25 basis point cut in interest rates. This is the second rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, less than two months from the last rate cut.

The interest rate statement showed that the FOMC decided to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% - 2%. The Federal Reserve cut the excess deposit reserve rate (IOER, the rate paid by the Federal Reserve for excess deposits) to 1.8%, and set the overnight repurchase rate at 1.70%.

The Fed cut was in line with market expectations, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at a subsequent press conference that if there were downside risks in the economy, more interest rate cuts might be needed, and the expansion of the balance sheet might take place earlier than expected, sending a signal of easing to the market.

First, let's take a look at Trump's comment: the Fed has failed again, lacking foresight, foresight and a bad communicator.

Let's take another look at the views of the major institutions:

(1) Standard Chartered Bank

Ilya Gofshteyn, Standard Chartered's emerging market macro strategist: Some market participants had expected a more visible signal of further easing by the Fed after this meeting. The Fed's lack of urgency may lead emerging market investors to believe that yield spreads will continue to support the dollar and put further pressure on emerging market currencies. The overall tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is similar to the monetary policy statement, and the Federal Reserve is not prepared to commit to more easing even if downside risks arise.

(2) Mitsubishi Japan Federation

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Mitsubishi Japan Federation: As long as the stability of the U.S. economy continues, the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the third time this year will begin to decline dramatically. The Fed will stop there unless uncertainty about trade frictions worsens the U.S. economy again.

(3) Blade

Blade said Fed Chairman Powell avoided "the main question we're all asking is to give us some guidance on whether to cut interest rates again".

(4) Bank of Mellon, New York

Lale Akoner, market strategist at Bank of New York Mellon: The market calls for a bigger rate cut by the Federal Reserve. After the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the U.S. index strengthened, putting pressure on emerging markets. The U.S. index may continue to show a strong trend because of the Fed's cautious action on interest rate cuts, and any further rise will put pressure on emerging markets.

(5) Wells Fargo Bank

Brendan Mckenna, FX strategist at Wells Fargo: The strength of many emerging market currencies this week is related to market expectations for more radical Fed easing. But the dot chart shows that Fed members don't think interest rates will be cut again this year or next, which is more hawkish than market expectations. It will not be surprising that emerging market currencies have withdrawn some gains.

(6) Xinda Futures:

1. Overall, it is in line with expectations, but Fed officials disagree on whether to cut interest rates further and whether to cut interest rates in the future is uncertain.

2. It has little influence on the cultivars of energy-chemical.

3. Based on the current macro-environment, the idea that gold and silver should be allocated as bulls remains unchanged. In fact, the market pullback triggered by the hawkish position of the Federal Reserve in the early days provides an opportunity for gold and silver to get on the bus again. It is suggested that Shanghai-Jin 1912 contract be around 335-340 and Shanghai-Yin 1912 contract be around 4250.

4. The further reduction of MLF interest rate at home will further boost the A-share market. The domestic interest rate reduction space will be opened, and the valuation of A-share market will still have greater room for improvement. Overseas countries have entered the era of "negative interest rate", and the attractiveness of Chinese assets in the world will increase. The stock index IC1912 can consider adding positions when the price falls back to 4950.

(7) CITIC Futures

After the Fed cut interest rates, the central banks of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates announced interest rate cuts. Central banks and financial regulators, which adopt the linked exchange rate system, are expected to follow suit within today. In addition, the Swedish Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Indonesian Central Bank, the Swiss Central Bank, the Norwegian Central Bank and the Bank of England will hold interest rate meetings today, and the above-mentioned central banks are expected to adopt a bias towards pigeons. In the case of many central banks, the hawkish interest rate cuts of the Federal Reserve are not biased enough, so it will drive the dollar index further upward, and the divergence of attitudes of Fed officials will increase the volatility of subsequent U.S. Treasury bonds.

Comment: Since mid-2019, the pigeon position of the Federal Reserve has been steadily strengthened. At the end of July 2019, the first interest rate cut in 10 years was initiated, and the expectation of further interest rate reduction remains. This will exert downward pressure on the dollar index in the medium and long term, while bringing down the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds.