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Although U.S. crude oil inventories declined, resulting in a brief rise in oil prices, there were rumors that U.S. President Trump was considering easing sanctions on Iran, and European and American crude oil futures closed down sharply. Wednesday (September 11) New York Mercantile Futures Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $55.75 a barrel in October 2019, down $1.65, or 2.9%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.61-58.3; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent Crude Oil futures settled at $60.81 a barrel in November 2019, down from the previous trading day. It fell $1.57, or 2.5%, to $60.52-63.27.
The net import of crude oil in the United States decreased, refinery processing increased, and U.S. crude oil stocks fell to the lowest level in a year. U.S. crude oil stocks fell 691 million barrels from the previous week to 416.68 billion barrels in the week ending September 6, U.S. gasoline stocks fell 680,000 barrels from the previous week to 2289.4 million barrels, and distillate oil stocks were 13622.6 million barrels, an increase of 2.7 million barrels over the previous week, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Crude oil stocks are 5% higher than the same period last year; 2% lower than the same period in the past five years; gasoline stocks are 3% lower than the same period last year; 3% higher than the same period in the past five years; distillate stocks are 2.2% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the same period in the past five years. U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 3.14 million barrels. The total processing capacity of refineries in the United States averaged 17.495 million barrels per day, an increase of 114,000 barrels per day over the previous week, and the start-up rate of refineries was 95.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous week. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6725,000 barrels a day, down 179,000 barrels from the previous week, and refined oil imports averaged 181.6 barrels a day, down 445,000 barrels from the previous week. Crude oil stocks in Kuxin, Oklahoma, were 39.328 million barrels, down 798,000 barrels from the previous week.
U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.295 million barrels a day in the week ending September 6, an increase of 234,000 barrels a day over the previous week, an increase of 1.67 million barrels a day over the same period last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency. In the past four weeks, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 3.45 million barrels a day, an increase of 94.2% over the same period last year. U.S. crude oil exports have averaged 2.854 million barrels a day since this year, an increase of 59% over the same period last year. In the past week, net imports of crude oil from the United States averaged 3.43 million barrels a day, a decrease of 414,000 barrels compared with the previous week.
U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.4 million barrels per day in the week ending August 31 and September 6, the same as the previous week, an increase of 15 million barrels per day over the same period last year, and 12.4 million barrels per day in the four weeks ending September 6, a 13% increase over the same period last year, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, the total demand for refined oil in the four weeks ending September 6, 2019 averaged 21.564 million barrels a day, 0.4% higher than that of the same period last year; the average demand for automobile gasoline was 9.701 million barrels a day, 0.2% higher than that of the same period last year; the average demand for distillate oil was 3.936 million barrels a day, 2.1% lower than that of the same period last year; Aviation fuel demand is 0.8% lower than the same period last year. In the one-week demand, the total daily demand for U.S. oil is 21.44 million barrels, which is 18.1 million barrels lower than the previous week; the daily demand for U.S. gasoline is 98.07 million barrels, which is 336,000 barrels higher than the previous week; the daily demand for distillate oil is 38.04 million barrels, which is 329,000 barrels lower than the previous week.
Oil prices fell after rumours that US President Trump had discussed easing sanctions on Iran. There are unconfirmed rumors that US President Trump is discussing easing sanctions on Iran to ensure a meeting with Iranian President Ruhani later this month. Reuters said the rumor was that market participants quoted Bloomberg News Agency reports, which quoted three unnamed sources as saying that then U.S. National Security Advisor Bolton opposed the move.
Crude oil futures in Europe and the United States fell Tuesday after Trump fired Bolton, an assistant for national security. But Bolton responded that he had offered Trump his resignation.
However, Reuters quoted Iranian state media as saying in a telephone call Wednesday that Iran would not negotiate with the United States while the United States was still implementing sanctions against Iran.
Some analysts believe that when Bolton leaves the White House and Trump talks about relaxing sanctions on Iran, Iranian crude oil may return to the market, perhaps at the end of this year. But in an interview with the media in Abu Dhabi later Wednesday, Iraqi Oil Minister Gardaban said the relaxation of U.S. sanctions on Iran would not lead to volatility in the oil market.
Garban also said it was impossible to consider deepening production cuts at the ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting of OPEC and the Alliance for Production Reduction on Thursday.
Iraq is OPEC's second largest oil producer. In the past two months, Iraq has substantially increased its crude oil production, and its daily crude oil production is far higher than its target output. But in an interview with reporters, Iraqi Oil Minister Garban said that despite months of overproduction, Iraq would immediately reduce its crude oil production to meet OPEC's demand for production cuts. According to the report of the International Energy Agency, Iraq is expected to increase its crude oil production capacity to nearly 6 million barrels a day by 2030.
This week, in their respective monthly reports, the U.S. Energy Information Agency and OPEC downgraded their forecasts for global oil demand this year. On Thursday, the International Energy Agency will issue its "Oil Market Monthly Report". According to officials of the International Energy Agency, the International Energy Agency will continue to downgrade its global oil demand forecast in its monthly report.
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