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Inventory declines exceeded expectations for three consecutive days of international crude oil rise

2019年08月21日15:22 来源:无

Major economies are expected to take stimulus measures to avoid a possible economic slowdown, the atmosphere in oil futures markets is supported, and oil futures markets in Europe and the United States are in turmoil. Analysts expect U.S. crude oil inventories to fall and European and American crude oil futures to close higher for the third consecutive trading day. On Tuesday (August 20), West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $56.34 a barrel on the New York Commodity Futures Exchange in September 2019, up 0.13 dollars per barrel, or 0.2 percent, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $55.28-56.6; Brent Crude Oil futures settled at $60.03 a barrel on the London Intercontinental Exchange in October 2019, up from the previous trading day. The daily gain was $0.29 per barrel, or 0.5 per cent, with a trading range of $58.95-60.32 per barrel.

To prevent economic decline, major economies are taking stimulus measures. Last Friday, the Standing Meeting of the State Council of China deployed market-oriented reform measures to promote a significant reduction in real interest rates and solve the "financing difficulties". On the same day, the People's Bank of China announced that it had decided to reform and improve the formation mechanism of the loan market quotation rate (LPR). Since August 20, 2019, the National Interbank Borrowing Center was authorized to publish the loan market quotation rate at 9:30 a.m. on the 20th of each month (postponed on holidays). On Tuesday, the first quotation rate in China's loan market was slightly lowered. There have also been some positive moves in Germany. The German government said it would be prepared to abandon its balanced budget policy and issue new debt in response to a possible recession.

Reuters quoted the report as saying: "China's key interest rate reform announced last weekend has boosted the expectation that corporate borrowing costs will fall soon."

Analysts generally believe that U.S. crude oil inventories fell last week. Nine of the 12 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimated that U.S. crude oil stocks fell last week and two estimated that they rose. On average, U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels in the week ending Aug. 16, with estimates ranging from 3 million barrels to 1.1 million barrels. On average, 12 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimated that gasoline stocks in the United States fell by 200,000 barrels last week, distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 200,000 barrels and refinery start-up increased by 0.1%. Analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated that U.S. crude oil stocks had fallen by 1.9 million barrels in the week ending Aug. 16. Analysts surveyed by Standard & Poor's estimated that U.S. crude oil stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, U.S. gasoline stocks by 1.6 million barrels, and distillate stocks, including diesel and heating oil, by 200,000 barrels.

After the closing of European and American crude oil futures, data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that US crude oil stocks were 439.8 million barrels in the week ending August 16, a decrease of 3.5 million barrels compared with the previous week, a decrease of 400,000 barrels in gasoline stocks and an increase of 1.8 million barrels in distillate oil stocks. Oil stocks in Kuxin, Oklahoma, the U.S., which has received much market attention, fell by 2.8 million barrels.

The U.S. Energy Information Agency will release weekly oil inventory and demand data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, or 10:30 p.m. Beijing Time.

John Kem, a Reuters market analyst, believes that global oil consumption growth has fallen at the fastest rate in five years as global manufacturing activity and trade slowed down and car production declined. In the three months from March to May, the 18 largest oil consumers in the world consumed more than 1 million barrels a day, down nearly 0.2% from the same period last year. According to data submitted by governments to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative, oil consumption has declined at the fastest rate since the third quarter of 2014.

John Kem said that the decline in oil consumption five years ago, coupled with the surge in shale oil production in the United States, led to a sharp drop in oil prices between 2014 and 2016, as Saudi Arabia refused to cut production. Now oil consumption is also slowing down. American shale oil production has surged again, but Saudi Arabia's production cuts have curbed the decline in oil prices. So far, Brent crude oil futures prices have fallen by just over 30% from their peak of $27 a barrel in recent months. But from June 2014 to January 2016, Brent crude oil futures fell nearly $90, or 77 percent, in recent months. However, as in earlier times, to curb shale oil production growth and allow consumers to have more purchasing power to restore market balance, low oil prices need to be maintained for some time. Such market regulation is already under way, and in the past nine months, the number of oil converters in the United States has decreased by nearly 120, or 13 per cent. The annual growth rate of U.S. crude oil production has dropped from more than 2 million barrels at the end of 2008 to nearly 1.6 million barrels.

John Kem said in his paper that, based on past experience, changes in benchmark oil prices take three to four months to affect changes in the number of drilling wells in the United States, and 9 to 12 months to affect changes in production. Consequently, the continued decline in oil prices since October 2018 will slow the growth of U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2019 and the first half of 2020. By mid-2020, oil production and consumption should be rebalanced again, on the premise that the global economy will not fall into a slump and lead to a further reduction in oil consumption.

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