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From January to June 2019, the domestic polyethylene market maintained a volatile decline. The market rebounded after mid-June, but weakened again in mid-July and reappeared its low level in August. According to Longzhong information statistics, taking the price of polyethylene in East China as an example, as of August 16, 2019, the price of low-pressure film material was 8,300 yuan/ton, 27.2% lower than that of the previous year; the price of high-pressure film material was 8,250 yuan/ton, 19.9% lower than that of the previous year; and the price of linear film material was 7,550 yuan/ton, 23.35% lower than that of the previous year. Prices continue to fall, the main reason is the imbalance between supply and demand.
Domestically:
The new capacity is expected to reach 1.68 million tons in 2019, of which about 280,000 tons of Jiutai energy and 350,000 tons of Zhongan combined energy have been put into operation. Baofeng in Ningxia is expected to put into operation in the third quarter. If the later-stage equipment can be put into operation smoothly, the capacity in 2019 is expected to reach 2036,000 tons, an increase of 8.99% compared with 2018.
In 2019, domestic polyethylene production continued to grow steadily. Affected by Yan'an Energization in the second half of last year and new energy production capacity in Jiutai this year, the monthly output in the first half of this year was higher than that in the same period last year. From January to July 2019, the output of polyethylene was 10.1435 million tons, an increase of 11.25% over the previous year.
On the import side:
From January to June 2019, the import volume of polyethylene increased by 17.17% compared with that of 2018, with a linear increase of 23.54%, a high pressure increase of 14.89% and a low pressure increase of 14.24%, respectively.
The year 2019 is a small year of polyethylene maintenance. The annual maintenance volume is expected to be 1.44 million tons, which is 45.83% lower than that of 2018. Among them, the second and third quarters are still the peak period of maintenance. The impact of equipment maintenance is 76.45 million tons, which is 38.04% less than the loss in 2018. After entering the fourth quarter, the amount of maintenance is reduced, and the new equipment is put into operation, so the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will be more obvious.
In summary, in the second half of 2019, with the commissioning of new units in Jiutai, Zhongan, Baofeng II and Zhejiang Petrochemical Company in Inner Mongolia, and the reduction of domestic overhaul facilities, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient; in terms of demand, when the third quarter enters the downstream traditional peak season, the demand for raw materials will increase, the price will be relatively strong, but it will advance. In the fourth quarter, the capacity of the new plant was released centrally, and the demand of China, disturbed by various factors, has shown a trend of weak growth, which is expected to weaken further. In this context, the polyolefin market will gradually enter a serious imbalance between supply and demand, and the price of polyolefin will continue to decline.
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