Worries about the escalation of trade disputes have intensified. Worries about limited growth in oil demand have continued to fall in international oil prices. On Thursday (Aug. 15), West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $54.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange in September 2019, down 0.76 dollars per barrel, or 1.4 percent, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $53.77-55.33 per barrel; Brent Crude Oil futures settled at $58.23 per barrel on the London Intercontinental Exchange in October 2019, compared with the previous trading. The daily decline was $1.25 per barrel, or 2.1 per cent, with a trading range of $57.67-59.42 per barrel.

International oil prices fluctuated this week with news and inventories. On Tuesday, it was reported that the United States postponed tariff increases on some products until December, with international oil prices rising by more than 4%. Foreign media misread China's economic data on Wednesday, and international oil prices fell 3%. However, in response to the announcement by the U.S. Trade Representative Office that it would impose a 10% tariff on some $300 billion of imports from China, the relevant head of the State Council Tariff Commission said Thursday that the U.S. move seriously violated the consensus of the Argentine and Osaka meetings between the two heads of state and deviated from the correct track of negotiating to resolve differences. China will have to take the necessary counter-measures. Affected by this, international oil prices continued to fall by more than 1%.

The Federal Reserve said Thursday that industrial output fell in July as manufacturing continued to face trade-related disadvantages. S& P's global rating upgrade is likely to fall into recession in the next 12 months. The rating agency raised this possibility from 25 to 30 percent in May to 30 to 35 percent. S&P said the deterioration of global conditions caused by trade uncertainty and industrial weakness was the key reason for its assessment. Standard & Poor's said that the probability based on financial market spreads is 34.9%, close to the top of this range, reflecting that tightening financial environment may lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth. Among the 10 leading indicators of recent U.S. economic growth, three are still positive, four are neutral and three are negative.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Saudi Arabia may continue to discuss prolonged production cuts despite rising oil prices. Last week, the oil market fluctuated sharply and was affected by new trade tariffs, as well as reports that Saudi Arabia was considering strengthening production cuts or stricter implementation of the current OPEC production cuts. This week, Saudi Arabia's Amy Oil Company announced its results, triggering more discussions about the Saudi government's desire for oil prices to be supported. Nevertheless, Warren Patterson of Dutch International Group said: "Due to the large increase in inventory, Saudi Arabia will continue to discuss extending the reduction plan until the end of the second quarter of next year before the reduction plan expires in the first quarter of next year.

According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency in August in Energy Shortage Outlook, crude oil production in 14 OPEC member countries in July was 29.61 million barrels per day, a decrease of 330,000 barrels per day compared with that in June. Saudi Arabia produced 9.8 million barrels of crude oil a day in July, down 200,000 barrels from June. In July, the United Arab Emirates produced 3.1 million barrels of crude oil a day, 50,000 barrels less than in June. Kuwait's crude oil production in July was 2.7 million barrels a day, 20,000 barrels less than that in June. Iraq's crude oil production in July was 4.8 million barrels a day, an increase of 50,000 barrels over that in June. Algeria's crude oil production in July was 1.02 million barrels a day, 20,000 barrels more than that in June. Nigeria's crude oil production in July was 1.64 million barrels a day, 10,000 barrels less than that in June. In July, Libya's crude oil output, which is not obligated to cut production, stabilized at 1.13 million barrels a day in OPEC member countries; Iran's crude oil output was 2.1 million barrels a day, down by 100,000 barrels; Venezuela's crude oil production was 720,000 barrels a day, down by 30,000 barrels.

In July, OPEC's production capacity averaged 31.94 million barrels per day, a decrease of 60,000 barrels per day compared with that in June; OPEC's remaining production capacity averaged 2.33 million barrels per day, an increase of 270,000 barrels per day compared with that in June; and its unplanned production interruption averaged 2.68 million barrels per day, an increase of 110,000 barrels per day compared with that in June.

Dow Jones News Agency reports that the U.S. shale oil industry is being hit by bankruptcy, and many companies are facing the dilemma of narrowing financing channels. As of mid-August, 26 companies had filed for bankruptcy this year, according to Haynes and Boone LLP. The total secured and unsecured debt of these companies amounts to about $11 billion. Compared with the 2018 data provided by the law, 28 shale oil companies went bankrupt last year, with a total debt of about $13 billion.

Despite two consecutive weeks of decline in U.S. crude oil stocks, crude oil stocks in Cushing, West Texas light crude oil delivery area, continued to decline, and the gap between West Texas light crude oil and Brent crude oil narrowed. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, crude oil stocks in Kuxin were 44.821 million barrels in the week ending August 9, a decrease of 2.54 million barrels compared with the previous week. Reuters quoted data released by Genscape, a data service company, as of the week ending Aug. 13, crude oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by about 2 million barrels.

On Friday, OPEC will issue its August Monthly Report on the Oil Market to make new forecasts of global oil supply and demand over the next two years. Bob Yawger, head of energy futures at Mizuho Securities in New York, said people were very worried about the monthly report that OPEC would issue, especially about the increase in supply in non-OPEC oil-producing countries and the impact on global oil demand in 2020.