The upside-down of US bond yields has sharply increased the risk of economic recession. Market sentiment has been hit hard, dragging down risky assets such as crude oil, and international oil prices began to fall in Asian trading on Wednesday. International oil prices continued to fall after U.S. inventory data were released. Wednesday (Aug. 14) West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $55.23 a barrel in September 2019 on the New York Mercantile Futures Exchange, down $1.87 per barrel, or 3.3 per cent, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $53.97-56.85 per barrel; Brent Crude Oil futures settled at $59.48 per barrel in October 2019 on the London Intercontinental Exchange, down from the previous trading day. The daily decline was $1.82 per barrel, or 3.0 per cent, with a trading range of $58.21-61.08 per barrel.

Reuters reported that industrial output growth unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in more than 17 years. However, Reuters arbitrarily considered China's July economic data disappointing only on the basis of data changes. This unscientific interpretation of data misled participants in the oil market.

Major economic data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on July 14 show that although some indicators show short-term fluctuations in growth rate, many indicators such as manufacturing investment growth rebounded for three consecutive months, and nearly 80% of new jobs in cities and towns completed the year-round task have released positive signals. Statistics show that in July, China's industrial value added and other indicators of growth slowed down compared with last month. However, how to treat the short-term fluctuation of indicators? Liu Aihua, a spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that monthly fluctuations were common. To judge the economic situation, we should consider the general situation from the overall situation and better grasp the trend and direction of economic development. According to Liu Aihua's analysis, the gross industrial output was stable. From January to July, the value added of industries above scale increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while that of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.7%, faster than that of industries above full scale by 2.9 percentage points. In addition, investment grew steadily. Fixed assets investment grew by 5.7% in January and July compared with the same period in previous months. Among them, manufacturing investment grew by 3.3% and recovered slightly for three consecutive months. Whether judging from the production demand or the employment price, the current economic operation still maintains the overall stable, steady and progressive development trend. However, we should also see that the current external environment is grim and complex, the downward pressure of the domestic economy is increasing, and the basis for sustained and healthy economic development needs to be consolidated.

Reuters also reported that tariff conflicts and uncertainty about Britain's withdrawal from Europe had exacerbated the slowdown in global economic growth. Data show that the German economy shrank in the second quarter as a result of lower exports, while the eurozone economy barely grew in the second quarter of 2019.

On Friday, OPEC will issue its August Monthly Report on the Oil Market to make new forecasts of global oil supply and demand over the next two years.

Gasoline demand in the United States continues to increase. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, the total demand for refined oil in the four weeks ending August 9, 2019 was 21.61 million barrels a day, 3.7% higher than the same period last year; the average demand for gasoline for vehicles was 9.704 million barrels a day, 0.6% higher than the same period last year; the average demand for distillate oil was 3.973 million barrels a day, 1.0% higher than the same period last year; The four-day average of air fuel demand is 2.1% higher than the same period last year. In one-week demand, the total daily demand for U.S. oil was 22.278 million barrels, 597,000 barrels higher than the previous week; among them, the daily demand for U.S. gasoline was 9.932 million barrels, 281,000 barrels higher than the previous week; and the daily demand for distillate oil was 3.859 million barrels, 27,000 barrels lower than the previous week.

U.S. crude oil stocks have increased for two consecutive weeks, but last week U.S. gasoline and distillate stocks fell across the board. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. crude oil stocks stood at 440.51 million barrels in the week ending August 9, up 15.8 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline stocks stood at 2337.6 million barrels, down 1.41 million barrels from the previous week; and distillate oil stocks stood at 13551.3 million barrels, down 1.94 million barrels from the previous week. Crude oil stocks are 6.4% higher than the same period last year; about 3% higher than the same period in the past five years; gasoline stocks are 0.3% higher than the same period last year; 4% higher than the same period in the past five years; distillate stocks are 5.1% higher than the same period last year and about 3% lower than the same period in the past five years. Total U.S. commercial oil inventories grew by 2.41 million barrels. The total processing capacity of refineries in the United States averaged 17.322 million barrels a day, a decrease of 475,000 barrels compared with the previous week; the operating rate of refineries was 94.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points over the previous week. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.148 million barrels a day, up 485,000 barrels from the previous week, and refined oil imports averaged 2.616 million barrels a day, down 54,000 barrels from the previous week. Crude oil stocks in Kuxin, Oklahoma, were 44.821 million barrels, down 2.54 million barrels from the previous week.

As of August 9, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.683 million barrels per day, an increase of 818,000 barrels per day over the previous week, an increase of 1.911 million barrels per day over the same period last year. In the past four weeks, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.604 million barrels per day, an increase of 40.1% over the same period last year. U.S. crude oil exports have averaged 2.83 million barrels a day since this year, an increase of 55.1% over the same period last year. In the past week, net imports of crude oil from the United States averaged 5.031 million barrels a day, a decrease of 252,000 barrels compared with the previous week.

In the week ending August 9, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 12.3 million barrels, which was the same as the previous Sunday's average output, an increase of 1.4 million barrels over the same period last year. In the four weeks ending August 9, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 12.225 million barrels, 10.3% higher than that in the same period last year.