U.S. crude oil inventory growth depresses WTI and sanctions against Iran continue to support Brent

2019年04月25日08:33 来源：无

U.S. crude oil stocks rose to their highest level in 18 months and WTI fell back. However, concerns about supply shortages caused by U.S. sanctions against Iran remain, with Brent crude oil futures rising for four consecutive days. Wednesday (April 24) New York Commodity Futures Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $65.89 a barrel in June 2019, down $0.41, or 0.6%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.66-66.43; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent Crude Oil settled at $74.57 a barrel in June 2019, up $0.06, or 0.1%, with a trading range of 74.02-74.73. US dollars.

The net import of crude oil has increased despite the rising start-up rate of refineries in the United States. U.S. crude oil stocks rose to their highest level in 18 months. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, U.S. crude oil stocks reached 460.63.3 million barrels in the week ending April 19, the highest level since October 2017, up 5.48 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline stocks totaled 225.82.6 million barrels, down 2.13 million barrels from the previous week; and distillate oil stocks totaled 127.29 million barrels, down 660,000 barrels from the previous week. Crude oil stocks were 7.2% higher than the same period last year; at the same level as the average in the past five years; gasoline stocks were 4.6% lower than the same period last year; 2% lower than the same period in the past five years; distillate stocks were 3.5% higher than the same period last year and 6% lower than the same period in the past five years. U.S. commercial oil inventories grew by 882,000 barrels. The total processing capacity of refineries in the United States averaged 16,583,000 barrels a day, an increase of 505,000 barrels over the previous week, and the start-up rate of refineries was 90.1%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the previous week. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.149 million barrels a day, up 11.57 million barrels from the previous week, and refined oil imports averaged 2.851 million barrels a day, up 137,000 barrels from the previous week. Crude oil stocks in Kuxin, Oklahoma, were 44.912 million barrels, an increase of 463,000 barrels.

U.S. crude oil exports increased. As of April 19, 2019, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.681 million barrels a day, an increase of 280,000 barrels a day over the previous week and an increase of 350,000 barrels a day over the same period last year. In the past four weeks, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.539 million barrels a day, an increase of 36.1% over the same period last year. Since this year, US crude oil exports have averaged 2.71 million barrels a day, an increase of 70.8% over the same period last year. In the past week, net imports of crude oil from the United States averaged 4.468 million barrels a day, an increase of 887,000 barrels over the previous week.

In the week ending April 19, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 12.2 million barrels, an increase of 100,000 barrels over the previous Sunday, an increase of 16.14 million barrels over the same period last year; in the week ending April 19, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 12.175 million barrels, 15.6% higher than that in the same period last year.

After the U.S. announced the cancellation of the exemption for Iranian crude oil imports, the International Energy Agency said in its report that the global oil market is now well supplied and idle capacity is maintained within an appropriate range, but in the case of fragile global economic growth, oil prices should be avoided. The International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that the increased sanctions on Iran would affect its export capacity. At present, Iranian crude oil and condensate exports are about 1.1 million barrels per day, 300,000 barrels less than the average in March and 1.7 million barrels lower than the average in May 2018. According to the International Energy Agency, global idle capacity is currently rising to 3.3 million barrels a day, while OECD stocks at the end of February stood at 2.871 billion barrels, higher than the five-year average.

For oil price forecasts, Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Germany, believes that the factors contributing to the rise in oil prices are strong and the chances of oil prices rising to $80 a barrel are much higher than the chances of falling below $70 a barrel.

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