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Trump's termination of exemptions to countries and regions that import Iranian crude oil continued to rise in European and American crude oil futures, but market participants are trying to determine whether Trump's decision will have a substantial impact on the oil market and whether other oil-producing countries can compensate for the disruption of Iranian crude oil exports. U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased last week, and WTI futures fell in electronic trading after the session, according to the American Petroleum Institute. On Tuesday (April 23), New York Commodity Futures Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $66.3 a barrel in June 2019, up $0.75, or 1.1%, from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.58-66.6; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent Crude Oil settled at $74.51 a barrel in June 2019, up $0.47, or 0.6%, with a trading range of $73.99-74.73.
Although the United States says other oil-producing countries can ensure adequate supply to meet demand, while the United States cancels its exemption for Iranian crude oil imports, Venezuela and Libya also face enormous risks in crude oil supply. If Venezuela's crude oil supply falls further, Libya's crude oil supply declines sharply because of the civil war. In addition, the United States has zero tolerance for Iranian crude oil exports, estimating global crude oil supply. Supply will lose 3 million barrels, a shortfall that other oil-producing countries cannot make up for.
However, at the end of May, the United States will enter the peak season of summer self-driving tours, and the rise in oil prices will also have a great impact on American society. The American decision of zero tolerance for Iranian crude oil exports may remain superficial, and Iran and its crude oil importers may avoid U.S. sanctions for trading. In this regard, the United States may open one eye and close one eye.
After May, it is still unknown how much Iranian crude oil exports will fall and how much more production will be produced by the United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. It is also possible to reconsider the sharp fall in international oil prices in the fourth quarter of last year.
The market is waiting for the U.S. Energy Information Agency to release oil inventory data. Six of the 11 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimated that U.S. crude oil stocks rose last week, four predicted declines, and one predicted stability. On average, U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 400,000 barrels in the week ending April 19, with an estimated decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 4.3 million barrels. On average, 11 analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal estimated that gasoline stocks in the United States fell by 1 million barrels last week, distillate stocks by 1.2 million barrels and refinery operating rates rose by 0.9%. Analysts surveyed by Standard & Poor's estimated that by the week ending April 19, U.S. crude oil stocks had fallen by 500,000 barrels, gasoline stocks by 1.1 million barrels and distillate stocks by 1 million barrels.
After the closing of European and American crude oil futures, data released by the American Petroleum Institute showed that as of April 19, U.S. crude oil stocks increased by 6.9 million barrels, gasoline stocks increased by 2.2 million barrels and distillate oil decreased by 900,000 barrels. Crude oil stocks in the Kuxin area of Oklahoma, the US, which has attracted much market attention, fell by 400,000 barrels.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency will release weekly oil inventory and demand data at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, or 10:30 p.m. Beijing Time.
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