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Brief comment on crude oil: U.S. gasoline stocks continued to plunge and OPEC production cut, European and American crude oil futures rose

2019年04月18日10:50 来源:无

U.S. gasoline stocks continued to decline substantially to offset the impact of increased crude oil stocks, Venezuela involuntarily substantially reduced production, and European and American crude oil futures rose. Wednesday (April 10) New York Commodity Futures Exchange West Texas Light Oil futures settled at $64.61 a barrel in May 2019, up $0.63, or 1.0%, compared with the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.05-64.7; London Intercontinental Exchange Brent Crude Oil settled at $71.73 a barrel in June 2019, up $1.12, or 1.6%, from the previous trading range of 70.57-71.78. US dollars.

Despite the continued growth of U.S. crude oil inventories, the sharp decline in U.S. gasoline inventories has supported the market climate. U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks have both fallen to the same level in the past five years, while distillate stocks are far below the average level in the same period in the past five years. U.S. crude oil stocks reached 45655 million barrels in the week ending April 5, the highest level since November 2017, up 7.03 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline stocks totaled 229.12 billion barrels, down 7.71 million barrels from the previous week, the largest decline since September 2017; and distillate oil stocks totaled 128.05.3 million barrels, down 120,000 barrels from the previous week, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency. Crude oil stocks are 6.5% higher than the same period last year; stable in the same period of the past five years; gasoline stocks are 4.1% lower than the same period last year; stable in the same period of the past five years; distillate oil stocks are 0.3% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the same period in the past five years. U.S. commercial oil inventories grew by 4.14 million barrels. The total processing capacity of refineries in the United States averaged 16.1 million barrels a day, an increase of 251,000 barrels compared with the previous week, and the start-up rate of refineries was 87.5%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the previous week. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.599 million barrels a day, down 164,000 barrels from the previous week, and refined oil imports averaged 203.6 barrels a day, down 71,000 barrels from the previous week. Crude oil stocks in Kuxin, Oklahoma, were 45.992 million barrels, down by 1133,000 barrels.

U.S. crude oil exports continued to decline. As of April 5, 2019, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.349 million barrels per day, a decrease of 374,000 barrels per day compared with the previous week, an increase of 1.114 million barrels per day over the same period last year. In the past four weeks, U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.838 million barrels per day, an increase of 73.8% over the same period last year. Since this year, US crude oil exports have averaged 2.735 million barrels a day, an increase of 80% over the same period last year. In the past week, net imports of crude oil from the United States averaged 4.25 million barrels a day, an increase of 210,000 barrels over the previous week.

In the week ending April 5, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 12.2 million barrels, which was the same as the previous Sunday's average output, an increase of 16.75 million barrels over the same period last year; in the week ending April 5, the average daily output of crude oil in the United States was 12.15 million barrels, which was 16.2% higher than the same period last year.

Analysts believe that the crude oil futures market focuses on integrated energy stocks, not just crude oil stocks. With the peak demand for gasoline coming down, gasoline stocks are more important.

After the publication of OPEC's Monthly Report on the Oil Market in March, European and American crude oil futures began to rise. In March, OPEC's crude oil production significantly decreased, mainly due to Saudi Arabia-led production cuts and political and economic turmoil caused by Venezuela's oil production hindered. According to second-hand sources, OPEC produced 3.2 million barrels a day in March, down 534,000 barrels a day from February, according to the March Oil Market Report. Most of the reduction came from Saudi Arabia, where production fell by 324,000 barrels a day that month. Venezuela produced only 732,000 barrels of crude oil a day in March, down 289,000 barrels from February, according to the report. In 2015, Venezuela produced 2.8 million barrels of crude oil a day.

But Russia, OPEC's main ally, has lagged behind in fulfilling its promise of 230,000 barrels a day. According to the OPEC report, preliminary data in March showed that Russia's average daily crude oil production in that month was 11.49 million barrels, a decrease of 40,000 barrels. The OPEC report also showed that global oil supply averaged 99.26 million barrels a day in March, down 140,000 barrels a day from February.

 

As global economic growth slows, OPEC expects global oil demand to increase by 1.21 million barrels per day this year, down 30,000 barrels from the previous report. OPEC expects the global oil demand to reach 99.91 million barrels per day this year, and estimates that it will exceed 100 million barrels per day in the second half of the year.

OPEC also said that the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's commercial oil stocks in February were 2.863 billion barrels, down 18.3 million barrels. It is 7.5 million barrels higher than the average in the last five years and 7 million barrels higher than the same period last year.

Libya, Iran and Venezuela were exempted from production cuts when OPEC agreed to cut production. But because Venezuela and Iran are subject to U.S. sanctions, the Netherlands International Group added: "The decline in crude oil production in these two exempted countries accounts for almost 47% of the overall decline in OPEC production."

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